Why The West Rules – For Now - Book Summary

Exploring the origin of Western dominance

The rise to prominence of Western civilizations is a tale that spans the course of history, with roots that dig deep into the ancient soils of time. Consider the phenomenon of the Industrial Revolution—originating from England around 1760, it fueled an unprecedented economic surge, catapulting Western nations to the forefront of global influence. The question lingering in the minds of historians and enthusiasts alike is how this Western dominance came to be and whether it is a permanent fixture on the timeline of civilization.

Our journey to decode the dominance of the West takes us back millennia to the dawn of two monumental civilizations: one nestled between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in Mesopotamia, and the other unfolding along the banks of the Yellow River in China. These cradles of civilization marked the commencement of a divergence between the West and the East—a dichotomy that has endured through the ages, with each experiencing its own era of resplendence. Presently, the scale tips in favor of the West, yet there is an air of speculation around the tenacity of its reign.

Within this narrative, you'll be drawn into an exploration of:

- the cultural and geographical reasons behind the exclusive discovery of early artistic cave paintings in Europe;

- the ingenuity of a Scottish inventor whose creations were instrumental in propelling the West to surpass the East;

- and the anticipated moment when the scales may tip again, potentially seeing the East, led by China, ascend to the pinnacle of global leadership.

Unlock the secrets of the past, and you may glimpse the contours of the future.

Dismantling the myths behind Western hegemony

The narrative of the West’s towering presence across the globe presents a puzzle that has sparked an array of theories. While the West's grip on international affairs and innovation is clear, the origins of its ascent are far murkier. Theories attempting to account for Western preeminence are often polarized, swinging between the so-called "short-term accident" hypothesis and "long-term lock-in" propositions.

The former chalks up Western ascendancy to a string of historical flukes—a notion that implies a temporary lead, one that could easily shift with the winds of time. Meanwhile, the latter posits that deep-seated, defining Western characteristics sowed the seeds of inevitable superiority far back in the annals of time. Yet some of these lock-in theories uncomfortably veer toward proclaiming Western genetic or cultural supremacy, a line of thought fraught with both ethical and scientific skepticism.

Delving into the biological facet of long-term lock-in theories, we encounter the suggestion that a genetic divergence millions of years ago spawned a superior subset of humanity in the West. However, such racial hypotheses fall apart under scrutiny. After all, the advent of Homo sapiens, our direct ancestors, rendered previous distinctions between early human species obsolete as they joined the annals of history.

Turning our gaze to cultural supremacy arguments, we come across the artistic marvels found in Altamira's caves, presumed to be a showcase of unparalleled Western creativity. Yet, this too succumbs to closer inspection. These early European expressions of artistry are likely a product of environment over innate capability—cave-bound due to the biting cold of the Ice Age, early inhabitants simply had more time and reason to etch their stories into stone walls. When the climate warmed, the artistry vanished along with the need for refuge.

To truly understand the reign of the West, we must abandon simplistic explanations. Neither genetic destiny nor fortuitous accidents fully unravel the tapestry of Western sophistication. The real story is a convergence of evolutionary biology, social behavior, and geography—a complex tapestry weaving together the disparate threads of humanity's journey.

Scrutinizing social development: East versus West

In the grand narrative of history, the terms 'East' and 'West' are not merely geographical expressions but symbols of cultural and developmental identities. To draw the boundaries of these identities, the West traces its lineage back to the Fertile Crescent and Egypt, unfurling westward, while the East unspools from the rich tapestry of civilizations along China's Yellow and Yangtze rivers. Our understanding of the developmental trajectories of these sprawling regions calls for a methodical approach, one that scrutinizes the very fabric of social progress.

Imagine social development as a living organism—its vitality gauged by its capacity to act, innovate, and sustain its populace. This encompasses the gamut of technological prowess, organizational structures, and cultural achievements, all of which empower societies to nourish, clothe, and shelter their communities, while fostering growth.

To quantify this progress, the author introduces an intricate social development index stretching back to 14,000 BCE. Four fundamental pillars prop up this index:

Firstly, energy capture — the barometer of consumption, calibrated in kilocalories per capita per day. From the food fueling a farmer's day to the sustenance vital for soldiers and seafarers in their conquests, energy is the bedrock of activity.

Urbanism stands as the second tenet, a proxy for organizational might, where population density serves as a reliable gauge.

Thirdly, we have information processing, the benchmark of a society's communicative and archival acumen. Consider the impact of accurate cartography on seafarers charting a course from Asia to Europe.

And finally, a society's militancy — its capacity not only to cultivate and collate energy and information but to channel them into martial prowess.

Upon applying the social development index, an intriguing image emerges: the historical progression of the East and West is remarkably aligned, each shadowing the other, though the West holds a slender lead. Both trajectories trace an exponential curve, gradually ascending over thousands of years before surging as the eighteenth century heralds the Industrial Revolution and accelerates their ascent. It is an insightful revelation that points to a shared human story, one where the two mighty branches of civilization expand in parallel, intertwined by common threads of innovation and expansion.

Post-Ice Age Geography Propelled Western Development

Turning back the clock to roughly 100,000 years ago, an Ice Age had cinched its grip around the upper reaches of the globe. Humanity, clad in determination against the freezing wilderness, adopted a nomadic lifestyle—roaming in tight-knit bands, subsisting on the hunt, and scavenging the sparse bounty of the land.

As the Ice Age's icy tendrils receded around 11,700 BCE, the Earth's demeanor softened, signaling a turning point that would eventually edge the West a leap ahead in the race of civilizations.

With the thaw came the awakening of agriculture, and herein lies the fork in the road that differentiated the Western and Eastern geographical "cores." The archaeological layers reveal that in the aftermath of the Ice Age, humans did not simply rejoice in the departure of the cold; they tilled the soil, sowed seeds, congregated in increasingly large settlements, and ventured into the enterprise of farming.

The Western core, particularly the Hilly Flanks—a curve of land stretching from the riverbanks of southern Iraq to the Mediterranean's eastern shores—ushered in an agricultural revolution around 7000 BCE that would scribe the opening chapters of civilization.

Meanwhile, China's Yangzi valley only serves as a later backdrop to the agricultural scene, where rice farming takes root between 8000 and 7500 BCE.

Geography proved to be the West's ally. The fertile crescents of the Hilly Flanks were resplendent with the wild ancestors of modern staples such as wheat, corn, rice, and barley. Herds of beasts ripe for domestication, including sheep, goats, cows, and pigs, roamed these lands—a veritable jackpot of agricultural potential nestled within the Western core.

It wasn't a question of Eastern inferiority; it was a dance with destiny where geography set the stage. The East, with its own set of ecological cards, lacked the geographic catalyst to ignite its agricultural evolution as swiftly as its Western counterpart. In this way, the contours of the globe imbued the West with an initial burst in progress, a geographical head start into the annals of development.

The race tightens: East and West on the brink of parity

In a marathon spanning millennia, the West's stride—forged initially with vigor—began to wane as it approached the first millennium BCE. The East, trailing but unwavering, edged closer, its developmental lag steadily shrinking.

Around 1200 BCE, the East lagged a millennium behind in social development, but the tides of history were shifting. A cataclysm known as the Late Bronze Age collapse sent shockwaves through the Western Mediterranean. Esteemed civilizations—Mycenaean Greece with its storied past, the mighty realm of Ramses II—saw their tightly woven empires unravel, fragment, and falter. Hunger spread, cities hollowed, armies dwindled. The once-mighty contenders of the West faced disintegration, though the exact cocktail of climate shifts, famines, governance failures, migrations, and potential diseases remains a riddle to this day.

In the seismic shadow of the West's troubles, the East surged, closing the gap. By the dawn of 1000 BCE, the East's social development score lagged by a mere few centuries.

As the new millennium unfolded, an intriguing parallel evolution arose in both hemispheres. Communities transitioned from low-end states, where rulers ruled lightly, taxing minimally and leaning on local nobility for military clout, to high-end states, centralized powerhouses with burgeoning bureaucratic machines dedicated to taxation and administrative control.

The tenth century BCE proved to be a crucible of change for both Eastern and Western societies, each laying the groundwork for more structured, high-end states. While the East was quickening its pace, the West moved first to cement these grandiose high-end states, as evinced by the Assyrian empire—a colossus that reached its apex around 660 BCE, showcasing the full might and organization of Western social development at the time.

Empires ascend and crumble in the new millennium

As the curtain rose on the first millennium, the world stage was set for the era of empires, nurtured by the intricate structures of high-end states. In the West, the majestic Assyrians and Persians harbored the first emblems of fully structured empires. Meanwhile, in the East, the Zhou dynasty laid the groundwork for imperial grandeur.

Yet, these nascent giants were merely precursors to the colossi that would follow. The Western world beheld the ascent of the Roman superpower, while the Eastern horizon was graced by the formidable silhouette of the Han Empire of China.

The Roman Republic, borne in 509 BCE, was only poised for dominion as it entered the third century BCE. By 201 BCE, Rome's clenched grip over the Mediterranean had quelled its mighty North African rival, Carthage.

On the flip side of the continent, in China, the Han Empire unfurled its vast territory from 206 BCE to 220 CE, ruling over one of history's grandest domains.

Despite the physical distance between them, these Eastern and Western titans shared a heartbeat. Cultivated intellectual elites, sprawling metropolises, agricultural bounty, and tentacular trade networks defined the sinews of their imperial bodies.

Despite their grandeur and might, these empires were not immune to the sands of time, and in the centuries that marked the transition into the Common Era, they succumbed to decline. In 285 CE, the Roman behemoth broke in twain, with its Western provinces hobbling until 476 CE, signaling the end of an era for the Mediterranean master.

Parallel to this, China's unity unraveled, culminating in the Jin dynasty reigning over the South, while the North splintered into a mosaic of smaller domains.

Both Eastern and Western empires faced analogous fates, beleaguered by unrelenting nomadic assaults at their borders and an unraveling central command. The empires, strained beyond their limits, could no longer withstand the tides of change and disorder. They stood as fragmented shadows of their former glory, signaling an epoch of transformation and turmoil on both sides of the world.

Eastern zenith and Western division as the millennium progresses

In the opening act of the first millennium, the West's pace of social development dashed ahead of the East, with Roman currency circulation eclipsing that of the Han Empire twofold. But as the Western Roman Empire dwindled, the Eastern realm emerged vigorous, soon reaching its crescendo.

By 1100 CE, the East leaped forward to surpass the West in terms of social development, spurred by a swift rebound from its ancestral empire's demise. The Sui dynasty stands as the architect of this resurgence, with Emperor Wendi leading a conquest of the South that left its economy intact and primed for prosperity. United, China experienced an economic golden age.

Agriculture boomed, further boosted by the Medieval Warm Period which lavished rain upon the arid northern farmlands, swelling China's populace to an unprecedented 100 million by 1100 CE. The East attained a pinnacle, mirroring the West's finest hour under the Roman Empire, albeit a millennium later.

Meanwhile, the West, straggling from its pinnacle, began to piece itself back together around 700 CE. Yet, it split between two distinct cultural domains: the Muslim sphere, consolidating its reach across Spain, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, and the Christian stronghold which clung to northern Europe's edges.

The Medieval Warm Period played a pivotal role in reshaping the West as well. While it parched the Arab heartlands in Southwest Asia, it nudged the Western locus of power toward the Mediterranean shores. Cities like Muslim Palermo and Cairo, alongside Christian Venice and Genoa, turned into bustling trade hubs.

With commerce's upswing came a renaissance of cultures—the groundwork for Europe's Renaissance was established through enlightenment gleaned from the scholarship and wisdom of the Muslim world. Once again, the West's geographical shifts steered the course of its civilizational development, weaving a narrative that bound East and West in a tapestry of rise, fall, and revival.

West surges forward with new trade routes as the East falters

In the annals of history, Marco Polo arises as a striking figure, his travel accounts from the East in the fourteenth century enchanting the West with tales of untold opulence. The majesty of Chinese palaces and the magnificence of its rulers were beyond Western parallels—China's social development was leagues ahead.

But as the pages of history turned, Eastern social prosperity began to wane. The late thirteenth century saw China locked in relentless conflicts with the Mongols, a war that battered the nation's sophisticated infrastructure and left it in ruins, succumbing to famine and disease. By the time Marco Polo's chronicles were inked, the splendor he depicted had already faded into memory.

While the Mongol hordes left their mark on the East, they never breached Western Europe, which carved out its own path to renewal. The Italian Renaissance, unfurling around 1300, marked an era of rebirth and intellectual fervor, fueled in no small measure by the preservation and transmission of Greek and Roman wisdom at the hands of Arab scholars. This thirst for discovery spurred Europeans to chart new maritime passages. In stark contrast to the turmoil of the Mongol-afflicted East, the West began charting a bold new course of innovation and exploration.

The epoch-making voyage of Christopher Columbus in 1492 heralded Western dominance over the seas, transforming them into vast trading highways. It was a clear indication that the West was back at the helm of progress, its sails billowing with the winds of change—and geography played an undeniable part. Chinese ships might have been equipped to cast across to America, yet geography favored the West, where the Atlantic beckoned with a shorter 3,000-mile journey, compared to the daunting expanse of the Pacific.

Despite these Western strides, China clung to a slender lead in social development. But for how long could this precarious balance hold, with the West's sails already full with the promise of newfound worlds?

Western dominance birthed with the dawning of the Industrial Age

Spanning from 1500 to 1800, the social development narrative of both East and West was one of ascendance, yet their tales diverged in rhythm. The West advanced with a relentless vigor, its rate of development dispatching the East's more measured pace. By the close of the eighteenth century, this fervent growth propelled the West ahead of the East, marking a pivotal shift in global power dynamics.

The pivotal moment came with the discovery of the Americas, a transformative event that supercharged Western trade networks. Resource-rich American lands gifted the Old World with new commodities—sugar cane thrived in foreign soils, adding to a growing bounty shipped across the seas. This economic boom, coupled with the dawn of modern sciences in Europe, laid the foundations for a revolution of a different kind.

Imagine a world awakened by the ingenuity of figures like Isaac Newton, whose grasp of classical physics spurred a chain reaction of technological innovation, culminating in the hands of Scotland's own James Watt and his steam engine—a triumph of engineering that fueled the West's Industrial Revolution.

Around 1750, the East and West presented mirror images—comparable threads in the tapestry of human advancement. But come 1850, the steam engine's roar echoed a declaration of Western preeminence. Power was no longer shackled by nature; it could be harnessed anywhere, unfettered by land or waterways.

The introduction of steamships and the chug of the locomotive shrunk distances, knitting the world closer together and propelling Western economies to towering heights. Trade expanded under the embrace of globalization, and communication leaped forward with the invention of the telegraph—a marvel in its time.

The stage was set, and the Industrial Revolution was the lead actor in a drama that would herald the onset of Western hegemony. As steam and steel reshaped the world, it was unmistakable that an era of Western rule had been set in vigorous motion.

The paradox of progress amid peril in the West's twentieth-century saga

The twentieth century unfurled as an era etched with the scars of warfare, carrying the weight of humanity's most devastating conflicts: World Wars One and Two, concluded by the protracted chill of the Cold War. The grime and grief of war painted a grim tableau of the human condition, with an unfathomable toll of a hundred million souls lost, while the specter of nuclear annihilation loomed over civilization.

And yet, starkly contrasting the destructive heartache, it was within this same turbulent century that the West would ascend to unparalleled heights.

In the ashes of World War One, old European monarchies crumbled, clearing the path for democratic ideals to flourish across the continent. Then, defying the ruins left by the global havoc of the Second World War, the Western bloc emerged not only intact but resilient. The Soviet Union rapidly reconstructed its shattered industry, and the United States, spared the scarring of homefront bombings, stood robust.

Moving past the binaries of the atomic era and the grip of the Cold War, the West marked a triumphant flashpoint in 1991, as the United States stood as the apparent victor, heralding a surge in Western prosperity once more.

But the horizon was changing. By the final decade of the century, a challenger stirred: China embraced market reforms, setting the stage for an economic crescendo. It's closed doors creaked open, welcoming privatization and an unbridled spirit of enterprise, firing up an unprecedented economic engine.

Consider the striking shift: In 1970, America commanded the production of 22 percent of the world's goods, dwarfing China's modest 5 percent output. American workers' productivity dwarfed their Chinese counterparts by twentyfold. Yet by the year 2000, the scales had tipped — the American lead in productivity had shrunk, China's share of production had blossomed to 14 percent, and the U.S. barely clung to its 21 percent plateau.

The world witnessed China's metamorphosis into the global workshop — an echo of the Industrial Revolution's own seismic shifts.

Amid the tumult and triumphs of the century, the West achieved its zenith. But the tides were turning, and one question edged into the collective consciousness: Was the sun beginning to set on Western dominion?

The potential pendulum swing of global power: East may eclipse West by the dawn of the next century

For centuries, the West has maintained the helm of global leadership — but the winds of change are inevitable. Will the rise of the East once again reconfigure the balance of power as the twenty-first century unfolds?

Projections into the future, a blend of statistics and foresight, suggest that this century may witness the East resuming its historic stature by the year 2103. The catalyst for this shift is economic prowess, with China's prodigious growth rates dwarfing the more modest advancements of Western economies.

Renowned financial institutions offer compelling forecasts: Goldman Sachs projects China matching the economic output of the United States by 2027, while PricewaterhouseCoopers posits 2025 as the potential milestone. It's hard to overlook the force of China's staggering 7.5 percent annual growth, a pace that sets the stage for rapid ascension.

While the realms of military strength, technology, and energy efficiency might see the East lagging slightly behind, the author anticipates the East catching up to Western standards around 2103, provided there's an upswing in these domains post-2050.

Yet, the tapestry of the future is a mosaic of uncertainties.

Some speculate that prosperity itself could serve to 'westernize' the East — blurring the lines between cultural, political, and economic landscapes in a world ever more intertwined by globalization. If Eastern and Western distinctions dissolve in a homogenized global culture, does the notion of who rules lose its meaning?

Moreover, the overwhelming tide of recent innovations — the decoding of genetics, the advances in computing technology — originate from Western shores, suggesting potential longevity in Western dominance.

And then there are the imponderables: climate crises, shifts in migration patterns, the impact of pandemics, and the specter of war. These variables weave unpredictability into any forecast.

In the grand chessboard of history, the pieces are in constant motion. While current trajectories lean towards an Eastern ascendancy, the game is complex, the moves many, and the outcome far from certain.

A balanced look at the ebb and flow of global power across history

The narrative of Western dominance, as traced through the pages of "Why The West Rules — For Now," unravels the simplistic assumptions that often color discussions of global history. The book rejects any notion that Western ascendancy is the result of irrevocable historical determinism or mere coincidence. It also undermines theories that attribute Western dominance to racial superiority or cultural preeminence as baseless and insubstantial.

This examination of history is nuanced, recognizing that the seats of power and progress have shifted between East and West over the millennia. The East, with all its richness and innovation, has stood at the forefront of social development and could potentially regain its stature in the world hierarchy. The future of global power is subject to change, not etched in stone, and the complex interplay of historical forces suggests that Eastern resurgence is a distinct possibility.

In essence, the dominance of the West is a chapter of history — one that may be nearing its conclusion as the balance of power gently tips towards the East once again.